Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) is witnessing a significant shift in its energy landscape, with renewable energy sources reaching unprecedented levels while the availability of coal-fired power declines. The latest data comes from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in a Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q1 2025 report.
Rooftop solar and grid-scale solar have both achieved new output records. This surge in renewable generation has contributed to record low levels of coal-fired generation. For the first time, coal contributed less than 50% of the NEM’s total generation.
Renewable energy supplied a record 46% of the market’s electricity during the quarter. There were instances where renewable energy reached even higher peaks, hitting 75.6% at one point on November 6th. This significant contribution from renewables also drove emissions to record low levels.
“The rise in rooftop solar output, coupled with record low coal-generation availability, resulted in coal-fired generation contributing less than 50% of the NEM’s total generation for the first time,” “Renewable energy supplied a record 46% of the market’s electricity, peaking at 75.6% for a period on 6 November, driving emissions to record low levels.”
Violette Mouchaileh, AEMO Executive General Manager – Reform Delivery.
The growth in renewable capacity is further underscored by the increasing number of projects entering the connection pipeline. AEMO’s latest Connections Scorecard at the end of 2024 showed a pipeline of 49.6GW, a 36% increase year-on-year.
Battery energy storage system (BESS) projects also saw substantial growth, representing 18.1GW of the total pipeline, a 97% increase compared to the previous year.
Battery Storage Boom
A significant portion of the connection pipeline is comprised of battery projects. This highlights the crucial role of storage in supporting the intermittency of renewable energy sources.
Solar Surging
Both rooftop and grid-scale solar are contributing significantly to the increased renewable output. New records in solar generation demonstrate the effectiveness of solar technology in the Australian climate.
Coal Decline
The report indicates a clear trend of decreasing reliance on coal-fired power. Reduced availability of coal generation is a key factor in the increased share of renewables in the energy mix.
While renewable energy records were being set, wholesale electricity prices in Q4 2024 averaged A$88 per megawatt hour (MWh). This represents an 83% increase compared to the same period in 2023, but a 26% decrease from the previous quarter. New South Wales and Queensland experienced the highest average prices due to high demand and coal generation unavailability.
New transmission projects currently underway, such as VNI West, Project EnergyConnect, and HumeLink, are expected to play a vital role in sharing lower-cost renewable energy across the NEM in the future.
The quarter also saw a record number of instances of negative prices, occurring 23.1% of the time, indicating periods where renewable energy supply exceeded demand.
You can read the full 85-page AEMO report here (PDF)
