Tesla has never delivered this many cars in Q1 before. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800, significantly beating market expectations.
These numbers are up from just 88,400 delivered and 102,672 vehicles produced in 2020, showing amazing growth. While Tesla had been guiding for a 50% growth in 2021, they’re starting the year with a 109% growth in deliveries and 76% growth in production.
Tesla’s growth in production and deliveries in Q1 2021 are even more impressive when we take into account the published theoretical maximum of installed production (as of Q4 earnings report) which was 1,000,050 per year, or 260,000 per quarter. Clearly no factory can run 24/7, but the efficiency Tesla is able to recognise from their factories appears to be growing, likely helped by the introduction of the Gigapress, single-piece castings.
During Q1, Tesla made 0 Model S and X cars, so the Model Y ramp looks to more than have covered the downtime on Model S and X lines as they re-engineer for the refreshed design.
Given Q1 tends to be Tesla’s worst quarter, the rest of the year looks promising, particularly given they’re on track to complete 2 new factories in Berlin and Texas. Cybertruck should be reaching customers in the second half of this year and it’s possible a few Semi roll off the line before the end of 2021.
Recently we heard reports that Tesla is setting internal goals of 1 million vehicles delivered this year. On the Q4 earnings call, Musk guided for around 50% growth in 2020 numbers, placing the annual numbers of 2021 at around 750,000. Given a strong first quarter, it’s now far more likely we land a lot closer to the million units per year.
Tesla also launched into new markets during Q1, including Israel.