Every automaker that will be around in 10 years has begun the transition to electric vehicles. Some are definitely taking it more seriously than others, but that timeline to EVs, is being heavily influenced by a number of countries and US states that are setting deadlines for the end of ICE vehicle sales.
ChargedFuture has compiled a great list of more than 30 locations that have announced bans on vehicles powered by petrol, diesel or gas.
Update
Since posting the article, Massachusetts has also announced a ban on new gas (ICE) vehicles by 2035.
In the US, EV sales account for around 3% of the new cars sold, while in Australia, we’re sitting at less than 1%. That slow uptake is for a number of reasons:
- Limited vehicles to chose from
- Higher purchase price
- Lack of Government incentives
- Limited recharging network outside the east cost of Australia
What isn’t preventing the sales is technology. In terms of battery tech today, the range of EVs is compatible with the average range travelled, and owners are often stopping due to human needs, rather than restrictions of the vehicle. Cars like Tesla’s Model 3 are capable of over 600km+ on a charge.
When it comes to performance, there’s no question there’s a variety of options, with some cheaper EVs like the Nissan Leaf (Gen2) opting for more modest acceleration, while the Model 3 Performance will shoot you from 0-100km/hr in just 3.3 seconds.
In 2021, the Government really needs to implement a timeline for the end of ICE vehicles or risk falling out of line with what their counterparts in the G20 are doing.
| Country | Year | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | 2025 | New vehicles |
| South Korea | 2025 | New vehicles |
| Belgium | 2026 | New company vehicles |
| Austria | 2027 | New taxis or car shares |
| Washington | 2027 | Government fleet |
| Slovenia | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Iceland | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Netherlands | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Denmark | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Ireland | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Israel | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Sweden | 2030 | New vehicles |
| India | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Germany | 2030 | New vehicles |
| United Kingdom | 2030 | New vehicles |
| Scotland | 2032 | New vehicles |
| Japan | 2035 | New vehicles |
| California | 2035 | New vehicles |
| China | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Singapore | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Sir Lanka | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Taiwan | 2040 | Bus (2030), motorcycle (2035), cars (2040) |
| Canada | 2040 | New vehicles |
| France | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Spain | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Portugal | 2040 | New vehicles |
| Egypt | 2040 | New vehicles |
| New Jersey | 2040 | New vehicles |
| District of Columbia | 2045 | Government and private fleet |
| Costa Rica | 2050 | New vehicles |
| Colorado | 2050 | New vehicles |
By setting a timeline, lets say a conservative 2035, automakers will understand they need to take action now. With new vehicle programs regularly taking 4-6 years, manufacturers are lucky if they have 1 full investment cycle left, before needing to bite the bullet and redesign their product portfolio.
Converting legacy auto to EV brands, may be a larger challenge than starting a brand new EV brand. There’s often a lot of competing ideas inside companies, which require many, many meetings to work through, eating internal resources that should be allocated to the change.
Retooling factories will cost billions of dollars and if you want to add battery tech and make connected cars, you’ll also have to create a secure, connected car OS as well. There’s simply so many layers to creating an EV, the benchmark of what consumers expect is significantly changing, but it is possible with companies like Ford producing a compelling product with the Mach-E.
Making a single product is one thing, but converting everything is a massive logistical and economic challenge for car companies that have diminishing revenues and are paying financial penalties for continuing to ship ICE vehicles.
If you’re wondering why a company like Tesla made a 730% gain in market value during 2020, it’s because they invested 5 years ago, in the R&D it required to produce the Model 3 and ultimately the Model Y at scale. It’s likely they’ll hit their target of shipping 500,000 vehicles this year, on track to double that next year, and produce 2 million EVs by the end of 2022.
While there are other automakers that know how to produce cars at scale, they all facing the biggest disruption to their industry in a decade. What counted for a lot before, counts for absolutely nothing now.
It’s worth remembering that moving to electric propulsion is just the first step, the next frontier is autonomy and if you don’t also have a great story to tell there, there’ll be some very challenging times ahead.
Australians deserve to live in a country with less pollution, less noise pollution and with a little bit of help from the Government, we can pull the necessary levers to be a leader in this space and make the transition to electric vehicles sooner.
The real reason for Australia lagging in EV adoption is the progress retarded Australian Federal Government. They have done absolutely nothing the help the population negotiate the inevitable transition to EVs. They have even taken delineate step to hold back the adoption. This will damage Australia financially in the long run. Australia is consequently missing out on jobs and growth.
Hmmm. A few things to think about. Most of the world’s emissions reductions are coming from increases in efficiency. That’s because the embedded energy in an EV is so much higher than in an efficient ICE care that it’ll take years of use to offset that – even using green energy to power the vehicle.
Secondly, the world’s lithium supply chain is almost totally controlled by China and some countries are looking to longer timeframes in order to ensure alternate technologies exist (such as aluminum ion/Graphene batteries) so as to preserve sovereignty of people movement.
Thirdly, we don’t have to worry. The US and European markets will determine the cars we get and no government incentives will be required to achieve the transition to EVs.
Relax Australia. No need to tax ourselves or spend tax dollars on the inevitable. Just invest in the right battery tech. Suggest GMG out of Brisbane (on the Toronto stock exchange). It has a project with UQ that is showing astonishing results.
Thank you Philip for injecting some commonsense into the subject. Further on your comments:-
EV’s are currently not taxed anywhere near ICE vehicles eg. fuel tax, so, when that happens, listen for the screams then!!
Yes, coal burning to generate all this extra electricity is v-e-r-y environmentally friendly, NOT.
Firmly believe EV is only an interim solution. Hydrogen is the long term, of which CLEAN water is the byproduct.
Whilst many countries will ban petrol/diesel sales, petrochemical will be developed sufficiently in the interim to power those ICE vehicles remaining in the national fleet, with substantial increase in emissions reduction.
Actually India is also a big player in battery production. They are only interested in $$’s, not tech advancement.