Elon Musk has just confirmed the highly anticipated FSD Beta expansion is not happening today as planned. This has now been delayed due to ‘last minute concerns’ and will now be pushed till Sunday or Monday.
The past two weeks have been a tense time for many Tesla owners in the US. After pushing ‘the button’ to request the FSD Beta, they were then required to adjust their driving to meet Tesla’s Safety Score. Those who have been able to maintain a perfect average of 100 (technically 99.5+ that gets rounded up to 100), are being judged to be the safest drivers and were meant to receive the FSD Beta 10.2 update tonight.
The Safety Score algorithm included scores for Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles, Hard Braking, Aggressive Turning, Unsafe Following, Forced Autopilot Disengagement. This technique of measuring driving safety definitely has its limitations and those have been found by motivated FSD owners, looking to get the Beta as soon as possible.
It is not clear if the Safety Score needs to be maintained for the additional days now, with many owners parking their vehicles after hitting the magic 100. There is a chance that a couple more days of driving could see drivers experience driving events that reduce their score.
With the FSD Beta program set to expanding from around 2,000 users (most employees), to add around 1,000 new users from across the United States, the obvious question was who would get it first. Firstly you have to own a Tesla and have purchased or subscribed to FSD. Then you had to request the download button, which put you in a queue and added the Safety Score.
While Tesla doesn’t officially update us with the FSD take rate, it is expected that of the more than a million vehicles with the hardware, the FSD adoption would be at least 15%, meaning tens of thousands of users could get the Beta if they applied and met the Safety Score benchmark.
Musk confirmed through the week, only those owners with a Safety Score of 100, would get the Beta today. He expected this number to be between 1,000 and 1,200 by Friday night when FSD Beta 10.2 rolls out.
From here, Tesla will watch and observe, monitoring for any severe issues and if they emerge, let’s say multiple accidents, then the rollout would be paused. If users are cautious and things go smoothly, the rollout will continue and then be released to those who scored 99 and below.
Given the difficulty in achieving the perfect score, it is likely the number who have 99, 98, 97 and so on, is many more than the ~1,000ish that received 100.
The reason the Beta is so sought after is that for the past year, the world has watched the software evolve and improve and its ability to do things that Tesla’s on the production software build, simply can’t.
Tesla’s FSD Beta uses computer vision to understand the world around it and navigate City Streets. This means the car turns corners, takes roundabouts and can even drive outside lane lines when required (like moving around a double-parked car) using drivable space as a technique, rather than painted white lines. This also means FSD Beta can be used on roads without markings.
FSD Beta isn’t restricted to specific mapped areas, like other autonomous solutions, as long as you are in the US, this will work. Obviously still being in development it isn’t perfect and the driver is still responsible for the operation of the vehicle. This means when the computer makes a mistake, the driver needs to spring into action and take control.
For Tesla, the FSD beta expansion in the US enables them to gather more driving data, from a more diverse location of users who will inevitably come across more edge cases that need to be solved. As we watch the continued rollout of FSD Beta, then to additional countries (likely LHD at first), it may shed some light on the timeline for other regions like Australia who are RHD, however, Tesla will likely need more local data and need a similar Beta program.
TeslaScope is a service that tracks software updates to Tesla vehicles, with a subset of users leveraging their service. According to their data, 93/200 users have achieved the 100 score. The lowest score a user registered was 96.
If you’re wondering who the lucky (or dedicated) Tesla owners who managed to score 100, this thread has a number of replies from people who achieved the required 100 Safety Score.