Well it’s finally here, Tesla’s highly anticipated Battery Day is tomorrow morning at 6:30AM (AEST). Ahead of the big event, Musk has posted today, resetting some expectations that were very much reaching fever pitch online.
The Tweets today confirm that the new battery developments will be a phased introduction over years, so we shouldn’t expect any announcements of cars leaving the factory with the new cells on-board.
With Musk highlighting the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster, as the most likely candidates to benefit from the new battery tech, we know the timeline of those products are still next year at best, running through 2022 and beyond.
Musk went on to detail that they need all the batteries the world can make, so the addition of Tesla production facilities, will clearly add to what they’re buying from Panasonic, LG & CATL.
The reference to ‘possibly others too’ is an interesting line, given the number of people manufacturing batteries is a fairly short list, so it’s possible we see new contracts with new battery suppliers announced tomorrow at Battery day.
It is somewhat dissapointing to hear that Tesla will remain battery constrained through 2021 and only in 2022 and beyond, will we we really start to see them stop walking, but run with cell production.
As we know from their efforts in the US, then China, now Germany, Tesla are great at building factories fast. It’s important to remember that a new factory that manufactures batteries, is vastly different that ones that produce vehicles.
You can read an extended list of my Battery Day predictions here.
I can’t help but think the post today was advised by the board at Tesla. Elon had been hyping the event on Twitter, to the point where people were starting to expect too much, like an across the board switch to Tesla-built batteries overnight, which ultimately would lead to massive disappointment when that doesn’t get announced.
Musk’s tweets today definitely helps to provide a great perspective in which to set our expectations, but let’s hope there’s still plenty to blow our socks off.
An increased lifespan with higher charge cycles, vehicle-to-grid technology including using the car as a virtual power grid, are possibilities that could be made realities with new battery tech. What I’m personally most interested in, is Tesla’s ability to execute on the Robotaxi fleet.
This requires both the completion of the autonomy and FSD suite, but also many, many more km will be travelled per car, so batteries that will cope with that are critical.
How well the autonomy and battery development timelines align, will be obvious tomorrow. Let’s hope for just a bit of insanity.
